Kilgore Won This Race in 2001
Despite the fact that pundits such as Larry Sabato are claiming Kilgore looked nervous and argued his positions poorly, the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce debate yesterday will make little to no difference on how people view Jerry Kilgore and how far ahead he is in the polls. First of all, no average Virginians watched the debate, partly because it it was early in the afternoon, and partially because no one really cares...at least not yet.
To be perfectly honest, Jerry Kilgore won this race in his 2001 campaign for Attorney General when Ken Hutcheson did an excellent job of defining Kilgore for the voters against an extremely poor opponent. While Kilgore was garnering 60% of the vote, Tim Kaine was struggling to defeat a poorly run and poorly funded Jay Katzen campaign by less than a percentage point. Kilgore appeals to Virginians despite or perhaps because of his accent. The worries that he might not resonate in more "sophisticated" areas of Virginia is proving to be a fleeting thought.
posted by Lighthorse Harry at 1:52 PM
3 Comments:
Extraordinarily sad commentary if you're saying that JK's defeat of a really weak (extremely liberal) Dem candidate in 2001 is what gets him the victory in 2005. What does that say about Virginians? What does it say about Republicans in Virginia? what does it say about Jerry Kilgore? Nothing positive, I'm sure. And what the devil does his accent have to do with it? The number of people in Northern Virginia who have some kind of voting prejudice against a SW Virginia accent is statistically negligible, if there are any such people at all. If he doesn't "resonate" up here, it will not be because of how he talks.
7:07 PM
I am missing the logic here. Kilgore is going to be Governor because his campaign manager did a good job of defining him against a poor opponent? I could understand it if you thought he did an excellent job against and excellent candidate.
I admit that Kaine did a terrible job against an under funded Katzen and that tells us Kaine is a poor candidate that makes poor campaign decisions. But, if we are going to base performances on 2001, I think you are giving way too much credit to a hack that had the one Republican candidate without baggage.
The story from 2001 is not that Jerry Kilgore had a good campaign manager, but that Tim Kaine is a poor candidate with no definition or ideas.
7:22 AM
The problem here is that most Virginians don't know who Kaine or Kilgore are. They didn't in 2001, and most still don't in 2005. Most know that he was involved in the wiretapping scandal, and that's about it.
2001 was also coming after a huge morale boost for conservatives both from winning the White House and the leadership displayed on 9/11. This year, after plenty of Republican rule and no sign of a smaller government, they feel betrayed fiscally by Bush and his party. Jerry's waffling on abortion won't help either. Throw in a possible attempt by Potts to Shrock Kilgore, and this year could be anyone's race.
3:29 PM
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