The Commonwealth of Virginia's Ultimate Blog

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Predictions for November 8th Anyone?

Six days out, notwithstanding certain polls, I believe the Republican statewide ticket will be sweeping on November 8th. My predictions are as follows:

McDonnell 54% - Deeds 46%

Bolling 52% - Byrnes 48%

Kilgore 51% - Kaine 47.5% - Russ Potts...the leftovers

But we'd like to hear what your predictions are six days out...

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny, I was thinking exactly the opposite. Its not a good time to be a Republican, even in Virginia.

2:49 PM

 
Blogger CR UVa said...

I've already told you, LH, what I predicted for the governor's race, but I'll put it here for public criticism.

Kilgore 50, Kaine 48.5, Potts 1.5 (though here's hoping that Kilgore can get at least 51).

As for the other two,

Bolling 54% Byrnes 46%

McDonnell 52% Deeds 48%

4:36 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dave Albo will lose, and Addison will go to Greg Werkheiser's swearing in ceremony.

Albo tried to lower the penalty for child molestation in 2004. But what is Albo’s side of the story?


Albo Alibi #1: Just Another Option! Albo first claimed (very creatively) that his attempt to downgrade penalties for child rape would not actually be a reduction in punishment, because he left the originial, much tougher Rape law on the books as well. This is little different than if Albo had introduced a bill to make bank robbery a misdemeanor, then denied he had done anything wrong because felony bank robbery was still on the books as well.


Albo Alibi #2: What Are They Talking About? Albo next claimed that he could not understand PROTECT's objections at all, that they simply made no sense to any of his Richmond cronies. Yet he managed to remove every last word that we opposed under pressure from PROTECT and Virginia citizens.


Albo Alibi #3: Saving Sodomy… Albo has also claimed that his bill was an attempt to make sure laws against sodomizing children would still be on the books if the Supreme Court struck down Virginia’s sodomy laws for adults as unconstitutional (under the Lawrence v. Texas decision). This tortured argument ignores the fact that if Albo really believed the Supreme Court was addressing child sexual assault (and not just adult consensual sex) and he wanted to make sure he kept sodomy against children a crime, he should have made it a real crime, requiring mandatory prison time. But he didn’t. It also does not explain why he also included sexual intercourse and other acts in his expanded definition of “custodial indecent liberties.”


Albo Alibi #4: Protecting Teens… Albo also claims that House Bill 1054 would have been a new tool that actually increased penalties for sex with teens. They say that if an adult has sex with an older teenager who is in the adult's custody or under his supervision, it could be considered a misdemeanor (contributing to the delinquency of a minor). But the truth is, the Albo bill applies to babies and young children, not just teens.

4:43 PM

 
Blogger Bwana said...

Anonymous-

You have got to be the fastest blogger I have encountered!

By my count this is the third blog where I have seen this entry...I had not idea Greg Werkheiser could copy and paste this fast!

as far as being on point...

Kilgore 48.5%
Kaine 48%
Potts 3.5%

I will add this: If Kilgore wins, it will be a long night. If Kaine wins, the race will be called by 10PM

Bolling 53%
Byrne 47%

McDonnel 54%
Deeds 46%

5:29 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree about the timing. NOVA takes longer to count then other places, and that's where his votes will come out of.

6:08 PM

 
Blogger GOPHokie said...

Anon, I have to agree with you.
It should be the opposite.
Either way it should be faster now that we all have electronic machines.

8:08 PM

 
Blogger Bwana said...

Nope, nope, you guys are right. I don't know how I got that turned around...but after posting I started to remember Bush and Allen 2000, earley 2001, Bush 2004...the GOP margin declined as the hight went on.

I have got to start drinking lots of caffeine after drinking to stay awake for this stuff!

11:08 PM

 
Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

That's because the cities use the worst voting technology- takes longer to count.

Results

Kaine 50
Kilgore 46
Potts 4

Byrne 53
Bolling 47

McDonnell 53
Deeds 47

Lighthorse- spell Leslie's name right next time you predict her political demise. :)

11:12 PM

 

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