Encouraging Developments in Canada

I meant to post this a couple nights ago, but I was highly encouraged to see the Liberal Party fall out of power in a vote of no confidence, 171-133 a few nights ago. Paul Martin's government will remain in power until the new nationwide vote in January.

Perhaps there is someway to tie this to the rise of Andrea Merkel in Germany and the French and Dutch voting down of the EU Constitution.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper said:

"This is not just the end of a tired directionless scandal-plagued government. It's the start of a bright new future for this great country."

The Liberal Party fell largely due to corruption coming to the servic revealing graft on a massive scale.

Law Students for Alito

A friend sent this law students website for Alito to me. Good to see conservative law students around the country mobilizing for Scalito's nomination. Following this site is a good way to read all the articles relevant to the nomination.

McSweeney Dead On

I love Patrick McSweeney's article on Bacon's Rebellion on the direction of the Republican Party of Virginia. He gets a lot of things right.

First of all, it is absolutely correct that the Republican Party both here in the state and nationally needs to return to a policy of fiscal responsibility. There is absolutely no credibility or sense in an absolutist position against taxes without an additional doctrine of fiscal responsibility. The national party has made a mockery of conservatism by allowing the creation of the largest budget deficit in American history.

McSweeney writes:

Instead of focusing on taxes, Republicans should emphasize the need to control spending. Higher state taxes are merely the consequence of a lack of spending restraint. Republicans have too often been seen as wanting it both ways — opposed to higher taxes, but eager to spend the new revenues.

He goes on to assert that the mobilization of the social conservatives by the Republican Party is absolutely vital to Republican success in Virginia. That's something that Kilgore simply didn't do, much like Marshal Coleman in the Republican campaigns for governor in the 1980s. Let's not return to those foolish days. The fact that Mark Earley lost to a strong opponent in Mark Warner in a bad year does not mean that social conservatism should be abandoned:

Until the party reached out to social conservatives in the 1970s, it had no prospect of winning control of the Virginia General Assembly. As the 2004 presidential election and the 2005 statewide elections in Virginia showed, Republicans aren’t likely to prevail without intense support from social conservatives

The key word there is "intense." Flaccid support from social conservatives will always result in the defeat of the Republican Party in Virginia.

RPV Advance screening

I thought of titling this post "Republicans Advance?" but even with a setback in the house, a heart breaker at the top of the ticket, and a frighteningly close race whose outcome will still be in question, I think there's always reasons to be hopeful at the Republican Advance. First, it's got the coolest name of any retreat ever (as the namesake Mr. Donald W. Huffman put it, we don't retreat, we always Advance). Second, it's the best place to make friends with GOP rising stars, and with falling stars desperately trying to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of a nearly decade old defeat (like my '05 picks for LG,Chairman Connaugton and Mr. Gilbert Davis, respectively).
Third, a good number of elder statesmen will host private "hospitality suites" for some good old-fashioned smoke filled room plotting and general jawbonin'.

What do we have to look forward to at this year's Advance?

1. The kickoff of Allen's presidential campaign, in the form of the kickoff of Allen's '06 reelection campaign. Someone will be passing out homemade bumper stickers and it will be fantastic!

2. Undercover manuevers from Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore in re: '08 or '09. Party activists from all over the state are abuzz with talk of statewide bids. My bet is they both go for an open senate seat. I don't know if either men or both are planning hospitality suites, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this tug of war start Friday night. I'm also guessing that Bill Carrico will have a suite to promote himself as the man to take down Boucher in the 9th.

3. A friend faxed me a copy of an invite to the Republican Senate Victory PAC's hospitality suite on Friday night. The PAC seems to be made up of only 5 of our 24 GOP Senators, and it talks about expanding a conservative majority in the Senate. I've always wondered if the '04 budget battle spent all of its venom in the '05 primaries. I don't for a second doubt that the 5 challenged compromisers were proxies for the Senate leadership who labored for the really big tax hike. The big loss in NoVA but the statewide success of Bolling make it hard to reach a solid consensus as to what the party's message should be, but very easy for both sides to jump to stark conclusions. Now I have no indication that the RSVP is planning on launching primary challengers- but I'd love to hear what other hay they are making around the Commonwealth.

4. Harry already mentioned that the College Republicans will be picking a new slate of officers at the Advance. I'd always heard that the Advance was moved to December to tone down college student participation (can anyone verify?).

5. Finally, it' s at the Homestead, again. Which while dreadfully far away is a captivatingly beautiful hotel in a surpassingly beautiful setting.

CRFV Race Heating Up

A friend brought this to my attention. Apparently, the College Republican Federation of Virginia will be voting on its new statewide officers this weekend at the Republican Advance at the Homestead. So those organizations that claim they made a combined 90,000 phone calls for the statewide Republican ticket this fall, as well as knocking on 16,000 doors, will be determining their direction in the future.

When I was involved back in the day, we had our elections in the spring, so apparently it's changed.

I hear the UVA College Republican chapter chaired by Brian Gunn, an alleged native of Louisa County, claims responsible for 15,000 of those calls made by the CRFV. Not too shabby, my fellow Hoos.

McDonnell Certified as Victor; Recount Saga Begins

No surprises today with the State Board of Elections certification of a 323 vote victory by McDonnell. Chad Dotson covers the developments well over at Commonwealth Conservative.

Several SST contributors will be members of the McDonnell legal team that will be helping with the recount. The McDonnell campaign is extremely prepared for this fight and I'm confident that they will do everything necessary to bring home the victory. Let's hope the true victor comes to the fore in this process so we don't have to consider this an illegitimate victory for years to come either way it turns out. Obviously we hope that it's McDonnell and will be doing our darndest to make sure it's so. On the other hand, 323 votes is pretty slim. I wish the whole state had the touch screen computers.

And we're all hoping this doesn't turn into an interminable drama that leaves the whole state wondering if the real winner was elected. This won't be anywhere near as exciting as 2000, and it will be much more behind closed doors and closed to the public then the heavily scrutinized Florida recount was.

Warner cited as "Great Male Hope" for '08

I'm still looking for the transcript of this morning's Chris Matthews Show (not Hardball; his 1/2 hour circular firing squad) but all Virginians will be happy to know that Katty Kay of BBC WorldNews America, Michael Duffy of Time Magazine, and Terry Neal of the Washington Post all cited Governor Mark Warner as the candidate most likely to beat Hillary Clinton in the Dems nominating contest. MSNBC's Nora O'Donnell when pressed picked Evan Bayh over John Edwards. Ms. Kay noted that he was really starting to impress people around the country as early as a year ago. Has she ever heard him speak? I watched most of the last State of the Commonwealth speech. I watched all of his address to the George Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. I've tivo'd his New Hampshire appearance. I better go watch it now to see if there's been any substantive improvements in this guy's charisma chops!

18-10 Canes going into the 4th

If UVA could just get a TD right now, this would be a serious ball game. We've played surprisingly well, holding the lead for most of the 1st half. It would be nice if we could score right now as the fourth quarter begins...let's go Hoos. Here I am still hoping that somehow UVA can pull out a miracle. I don't know whether to admire my undying fanaticism or pity myself.

Skyline Drive

Just got back from spending 4 hours up on the Skyline Drive. Hiked the Blackrock Summit which is simply spectacular. Showing a couple buddies from Boston down for the Thanksgiving the beauties of the Commonwealth.

Today was gorgeous up in the Park. Blue skies, amazing visibility. Frigid...in the 20s up there.

Governor-elects NoVA Town Hall -- 11/29

Right up front on the Governor-Elect's official website you can see that there are only two more stops in his transportation Town Hall tour. I encourage every Northern Virginian to hustle on over to Manassas Airport at 6:30 (and for all those not living in occupied territory, believe me, that's a mother of a hustle).

While you are there, make sure to ask Mr. Governor-Elect to please do something about this. He can start by not appointing former Fairfax County BOS Chairman Kate Hanely to anything related to transportation planning ever again.

I think it'll be a good show (as long as Todd Rundgren isn't filling in for him).

Larry Sabato

"It's amazing, that's all you can say. The net changes are all going in one direction, toward the Democrat, which is unusual but possible."

McDonnell up by 323

Norm over at OneMansTrash brought our attention to the fact that SBE has McDonnell gaining one voted today!!!! The lead currently stands up at 323 votes for the time being.

The McDonnell campaign is rallying their lawyers for the recount during the week of December 19th, which will probably take a day or two.

McDougle to Replace Bolling?

Chad covers young up-and-coming Ryan McDougle entering the race to replace Bill Bolling in the State Senate.

I'm counting on Bob McDonnell winning the race for AG, and Deeds keeping his state senate seat. I hear rumors though that Keith Drake, Albemarle County Republican Party Chairman, might be a potential contender to replace Deeds should he move on. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, but Drake would be an excellent choice.

A New Contributor at SST

We are pleased to welcome a new contributor to our merry little band of bloggers here at SST. Goodwin, as you might have noticed, is our newest member, and an old friend of Lighthorse Harry, and well known to Old Zach and Addison as well. Goodwin is well-connected and established within the Republican Party of Virginia as a result of many years of grassroots politicking, and we wouldn't have it any other way.

I think you will find his writing witty and insightful, not to mention right on point. His viewpoint will provide a new diversity on SST. Although he is as good a conservative as the rest of us, his views will diverge from ours on some occasion, not to suggest that the three original bloggers here have always agreed on issues by any means. Quite the opposite, we have often had civil but very vociferous disagreements with each other over who to support, and the course and direction of our party. So please note our newest member's posts (his first one is below). I think you will find them a delightful addition.

Kaine the Crusader?

There are two major problems with this Christina Nuckols penned piece which appeared in the Virginian-Pilot on Monday. First, I don't think we should call one sentence of spin from DNC Chair Howard Dean "national attention" as much as it is "a national mention." Second, the difference between everyone praising Kaine's brilliant handling of faith and the derisive laughter that typically plagues a liberal who tries to play the "faith card," is that Kaine won. And the piece doesn't provide voice to anyone who is arguing that it made a major difference besides Mo Elleithee, who doesn't argue that Kaine was able to attract the "religious right," but only helps us understand Kaine's faith as a bulwark against the awful Kilgore negative attack.

I've heard anecdotal evidence from a few (including SST's own Lighthorse Harry) that Kaine's missionary credentials made an impact in the evangelical community, but the DNC should wait for a decent survey and maybe some number we can point at before they turn Kaine's election into some sort of heaven-sent sign.

UVA Still Leads in the Commonwealth Challenge

Even though UVA's major sports teams (i.e. football and basketball) are performing pathetically right now, and I have no real hope for this year's basketball team or any team in the near future, somehow UVA is leading the Commonwealth Challenge 6-3. Thank God we have good swimming, soccer, lacrosse, etc. teams.

Syriana

While Old Zach is planning on watching Walk the Line shortly and I'm intrigued by its similarity of genre to Ray, I'm starting to get very interested in Syriana, the George Clooney movie starring Matt Damon and based roughly on the book by Robert Baer, an ex-CIA field officer in its Directorate of Operations division from 1976 to 1997. He is the author of See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism.

To read an interview on FrontpageMag with Robert Baer, go here. Baer on Clinton: "I think Clinton was naive. He didn't have the slightest idea there was a dangerous world out there. A baby-boomer, he was more concerned about Nasdaq and the way he felt about things than he was about national security."

Here is the trailer for the movie, which looks simply fascinating. Probably a lot of propaganda, but hopefully an exciting movie.

I need to see Good Luck and Good Night as well, another film directed by Clooney.

And of course, Narnia is on the horizon as well. Looks like ther might finally be some interesting movies out.

Underground Church in China: Seminarians Arrested

Interesting article here coming out before President Bush's visit to that nation with a horrible record in religious freedom. Frankly, I'm tired of hearing about the oppression of the Falun Gong which is a relatively small movement that is the politically correct movement to try to defend in the international press. The much larger and more oppressed spiritual movement in China is the underground church, which combined Protestant and Catholic numbers over 85 million today and growing by leaps and bounds everyday. The Falun Gong is kind of like the Dalai Lama and the Free Tibet movement in its popularity with Far Left.

Traumatized

Yeah, I just got back from the UVA game. Don't have much to say about it...pretty much the worst UVA game I've ever been to, and I've been going to games since about 1992. It was over when we fumbled the punt and they scored to make it 17-0. Thank you Al Groh for getting the boys so mentally retarded....i mean prepared...

Alright, the funny thing is that Old Zach is doing his Army Reserve training right now and has no idea what the score is...hmmm, I think can use this against him somehow.

More on Hutcheson

I like Chad's comments on the Hutcheson letter debacle, and agree with his perspective on the whole thing.

Suspended UVA Players Back Against Hokies

The Daily Progress reports that UVA will not be missing the services of three of the players suspended last week, namely defensive starter Tony Franklin and Kwakou Robinson, and backup wide receiver Ottawa Anderson.

These guys will be hungry to redeem themselves for their violations and the return of the defensive starters is vital, especially with Nate Lyles out for the season with his neck injury on Saturday. Thank goodness he wasn't paralyzed though. As he lay there on the field not moving for quite some time, the sinking feeling that something horrible might have happened to him like Dennis Byrd of the New York Jets sometime ago...anyway, glad Lyles only has a serious neck injury, and is already walking and moving around. He is currently wearing a neck brace for cautionary reasons.

Bush Approval Ratings Continue to Drop

Perhaps it wasn't Ken Hutcheson's fault, or Jerry Kilgore's fault even...perhaps Bush's favorability was bad enough to suppress Republican turnout to the point of defeat for Virginia statewide tickets....it's a thought. Check out these awful poll numbers. 34% favorability rating for Bush now.

Miller Center Forum Today

Going to hear Michael Farris, a man I greatly admire, and the Republican nominee for LG in 1993, today at a Miller Center Forum on Training Christians to be Politicians.

Here's an excellent article from The New Yorker about the institution he has almost singlehandedly built in western Loudon County.

357 Votes?

The SBE website currently shows a 357 vote total separating Deeds and McDonnell...not what I wanted to hear.

Ad Nauseam

Alright, everybody, I am sick and tired of the nauseating number of posts concerning the 2009 statewide ticket. My friends, it is simply too early. We haven't even finished counting the ballots on the AG race...we don't even know whether McDonnell is going to win or lose, which will be a major factor on who we nominate in 2009. On that note, maybe we should be discussing what we need to do to get Bob McDonnell elected...perhaps we need protests, posts about the shrinking lead, complaints to the state electoral board...I don't know, but this election isn't even over!!!

And I'm not going to link to any of the ridiculous number of posts on any number of Virginia blogs that has already begun to speculate about the Republican nominees for the 2009 statewide tickets. I understand some of the fascination with 2009, and perhaps the fact we lost the gubernatorial race is the major contributing factor to our fixation with it, but this needs to stop. We have three more elections before 2009 that we need to focus on. Albeit, the Congressional elections aren't always the most exciting, but we will have some competitive elections for House seats before 2009 I guarantee you. In addition, we have the state Senate races in '07, and this thing called a presidential election in 2008 which may involve our home town boy George Allen, which will kinda be occupying our minds.

So let's forget about 2009...at least for a few years please. I know people are already going to be campaigning for it, because the desire for political recognition and power never fades, but let's be realistic. We have a lot more important things to be discussing such as our legislative agenda for the 2006 legislative session, and how we are going to govern effectively with a Democratic governor and how we are going to put up a strong resistance to his conivances. We certainly did not do a very good job against Mark Warner.

Wali Lundy Scores TDs 46, 47 of UVA Career

Glad to have Wali Lundy back in fine form....he's scored 6 rushing TDs in the last two games, and helped to lead UVA to a fine victory over #24 Georgia Tech. They still haven't beaten us at home since they beat us in 1990 when were ranked #1 in the country. Wish we could have that one back!

Old Zach and I were on hand at the game...was a pretty subdued game overall, but satisfying win...

Bring on the Hokies!!! I want some turkey!!!

Scott Stadium is going to be deafening and packed next week. I'm going to go ahead and make my prediction for the game: UVA over Tech 28-24. Vick will choke. The senior Hagans will come up big.

VA Needs to Win to Guarantee Winning Season

That about sums it up. If we had beaten UNC as we should have, we'd be 6-2 and sitting pretty with three straight wins...unfortunately, we had that typical letdown game after the victory over then undefeated #4 FSU and put ourselves in the unfortunate position of having to win one or two of a final stretch of games that no one would envy....3 top 25 teams, including 2 top ten teams. But it is not out of our reach. The first two games are at home. Time to come up big today with a victory over Georgia Tech first.

Too bad Tony Franklin, Ottawa Anderson, Kwakou Robinson, and another player will be sitting the pine because of the ingestion of some illegal substances...nice timing guys.

Norm's Analysis of Barone's Thoughts

I gotta link to this post even though it's a day old...Barone's analysis of Kilgore's campaign is hardhitting but largely accurate, and I am sympathetic to Norm's feelings on the whole campaign.

Barone states what we already should have known: "Supporting tax increases does not produce political death. If voters feel—as voters in traffic-clogged Northern Virginia and perhaps the other suburbs do—that higher taxes will produce goods that you want—fewer traffic jams—they will support you." On top of this, Kilgore took no real stance on taxes, but just tried to scare the populace. The fact is...Virginians aren't taxed too badly. Other things are more important. Why else would Mark Warner have a 74% approval rating with his primary accomplishment being the largest tax increase in Virginia history.

How Scared Are the Pro-Choicers?

Fascinating piece on Salon about how the pro-choicers are realizing that pro-lifers have been making slow but steady headway against abortion over the last few decades and the overturning of Roe v. Wade is not as impossible as they had previously assumed.

Focuses primarily on Mississippi and the successes of the pro-lifers down there to shut down every abortion clinic but one in the entire state.

Stop Telling Us Why This Election Will Matter in 2006

The media is frenzied with attempts to interpret the meaning of the two gubernatorial race losses on Tuesday night, and most of them are trying to couch it in terms of a loss of faith in the Bush White House and the majority party...which is exactly what they were hoping to get to write about.

Here, at long last, is one sane Washington Post article highlighting the fact that probably the biggest factor in the gubernatorial race in Virginia was the quality of the candidates themselves and the races that they ran for the governor's mansion.

The other Washington Post article of the morning continues to explain how Tuesday means that Republicans will lose big a year from now, which if it does happen, will have nothing to do with what happened on Tuesday.

I Hate To Be The One To Say It

But let's make sure the Republican Party puts forward our best and our brightest for our gubernatorial nominees in the future.

There is definitely a reason that Bolling received 66,000 more votes then Kilgore, and McDonnell received 60,000 more. I hate to say it, but Kilgore lacked two major qualities:

1) he did not energize the base - and when I say base, I mean the Christian Right

2) his campaign was afraid to put him in front of a camera (and i love the guy...he's great in person, but he was not an articulate candidate) and terrified of putting him in a debate

Ultimately, we have to realize that we cannot run campaigns that are entirely based around instilling fear into the citizens of the Commonwealth that the Democratic candidate is going to raise taxes. We tried it in 2001 and it failed miserably. Warner raised taxes despite promising not to, and no one really cared. There has to be some greater uniting principle of our campaign than scaring our opponents. Once again, an anti-tax campaign against Kaine failed. He's raised taxes in the past, and will do so again in the future. Apparently a Republican candidate needs to offer more if he wants to get elected. Then again, I'm trying to figure out what Kaine stood for myself.

Really, Really, Really Bad

As I just told Old Zach, "This isn't a horrible defeat. It's just a really, really, really bad defeat."

2 of 3 - Better than 2001?

We got 2 of 3 statewide races, assuming McDonnell holds on.

SurveyUSA Recants and Says Kilgore Much Closer!!!

Everything is breaking Kilgore's way tonight. Chad Dotson just broke this story!

Here is the SurveyUSA apology and explanation. Polling today showed the race tied, and the polling from the last three days puts the race at clearly closer than even 5 points.

Let's get it on!!!

We Will Do 5 Points Better Than We Are Polling

For all those naysayers out there, let me remind you that Republicans, especially in Virginia, ALWAYS, without fail, without exception turn out better than the Democrats and even more so in gubernatorial elections.

2001 - Earley was down by 10 points in the Washington Post poll going into the final weekend...he only lost by 5 points, and the that poll itself may have caused even more voters not to turn out.

1997 - Gilmore won by far more than the polls predicted.

1993 - Allen's election resulted in the same way.

1989 - Marshall Coleman wasn't even close to Wilder in the polls, but lost by only about 5,000 votes. Of course, there were other issues involved there too, but the trend remains nonetheless.

So have no fear...when you hear about Rasmussen Polls having us a couple points down perhap, realize that our ground campaign will put us over the top...so go out and vote and do everything you ethically can to make sure our turnout is superior to theirs tomorrow.

Anyone Else Ready For This Election To Be Over?

I know certainly am. And it'll be a lot sweeter if all our work is not in vain, so keep pushing on.

I was knocking on doors all morning. Old Zach is phonebanking as I write this and into the evening.

Bush is in Richmond tonight.

Less Than 42 Hours Until the Polls Open

If you are sitting at home right now reading this, you need to get up off your butt and get out their campaigning for Jerry and the rest of this Republican ticket....enough said. Old Zach and I are making phone calls and knocking on doors all afternoon. I was out with others flyering parking lots all morning....this is our last ditch effort...let it all hang loose.

Jarhead: Gritty and Hardhitting

Old Zach and I watched Jarhead this evening with several good friends and enjoyed. It's definitely a unique "war movie" in that there are too many shots fired although the entire movie centers around Desert Storm in 1991.

Jamie Foxx and Jake Gyllenhaal are astounding. I predict Oscar nominations for the both of them. They deserve it. Gyllenhaal delivers an amazing performance. There are some excruciatingly evocative scenes concerning the effects that deployment have on soldiers, and particularly Marines away from girlfriends who leave them for "good listeners." This is definitely a movie that kicks you in the gut at times....you gotta see it to make your own mind up about it.

As for the political undertones, there aren't many, though some parts at the end could be taken as critical of our being in "the desert." It mentions that our boys are still over there. But I took it more as an assertion that we need to understand the hardships that these guys and gals are going through to serve their country.

Any thoughts?

Gay Marriage Amendment on the Ballot in Texas

There ain't a chance in hell that Texans don't pass the amendment outlawing gay marriage by at least at 2 to 1 majority, and I'll bet on that. Any takers?

Alito Polling Pretty Well

The polling for Samuel Alito is looking relatively decent so far.

Predictions for November 8th Anyone?

Six days out, notwithstanding certain polls, I believe the Republican statewide ticket will be sweeping on November 8th. My predictions are as follows:

McDonnell 54% - Deeds 46%

Bolling 52% - Byrnes 48%

Kilgore 51% - Kaine 47.5% - Russ Potts...the leftovers

But we'd like to hear what your predictions are six days out...

Politician Ideology Guide

South of the James has a fascinating post here trying to sort out where the gubernatorial candidates stand on all the issues. Check it out.

AG Race Getting Nasty; Wilder Refuses to Endorse Deeds

The RTD has an article about the divisiveness of the AG race. Creigh Deeds, feeling his time running out to catch up to McDonnell, is making ridiculous attacks against McDonnell that frankly won't hurt McDonnell very much. I find it amusing that Deeds calls Regent University the "Christian Broadcasting Network University" in his ads.

Douglas Wilder also has refused to endorse a statewide Democratic candidate (Deeds) for the first time since he was elected to the state senate as a Democrat in 1969. So that doesn't bode well for Deeds. It will hopefully limit African-American turnout for Deeds on November 8th.