The Commonwealth of Virginia's Ultimate Blog

Thursday, March 03, 2005

VCAP endorses Six

Today, the Virginia Conservative Action PAC announced six endorsements for the Republican primary on June 14th. The challengers are:
  • Mark Jarvis challenging Ed Scott in the 30th (Madison-Culpeper)

  • Chris Oprison challenging Joe May in the 33rd (Loudoun) - Whether he drops out or loses the nomination, Joe May will be running for his seat again

  • Michael Golden running for the open seat formerly held by Jim Dillard

  • Steve Chapman challenging Harry Parrish in the 50th (Prince William)

  • Shaun Kenney challenging Bobby Orrock in the 54th (Caroline)

  • Chris Craddock challenging Gary Reese in the 67th (Fairfax)
One more to put on your radar is Lynchburg City councilman Robert Garber challenging Preston Bryant in the 23rd. (Thanks to Commonwealth Watch)

Get ready to have a lot of money spent in these races. If I was going to wager on most likely to least likely to be successful, I would rank them:
1) Michael Golden
2) Chris Craddock
3) Chris Oprison
4) Mark Jarvis
5) Robert Garber
6) Steve Chapman
7) Shaun Kenney

As always, Sic Semper will be keeping track of each of these races.

NOTE: There is NO reason for these candidates not to have a webpage and for that webpage not to top any search. If you need help getting your webpage noticed by Google, email me.

8 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Does your ranking of most likely to be successful measure success on chances of winning the primary or making it to the General Assembly? In the Dillard seat, it appears that Golden will win the nomination but have a tough General, so just wondering why he is #1. BTW, thanks for doing this great service!

8:41 AM

 
Blogger Norman said...

Addison,

In the Golden race, I notice that one Bradley Davis is now running as a Republican in the primary. It's my understanding that Dillard was going to have either former aides or other campaign workers run in both primaries. Is Davis one of them?

9:46 AM

 
Blogger Walt Ball said...

VCAP? Who cares? The only person who matters at VCAP is Jerry Parker who pledged a half million dollars to the organization and then became Chairman. Mr. Parker is a good man with good ideals but he is ill served by the likes of Robin Dejarnette who couldn't fundraise her way out of a lemonade shack. Seems the only think keeping VCAP afloat is Parker's money. Word has it that their two fundraisers lately (G. Gordon Liddy and Ann Coulter)either lost money or broke even. Maybe VCAP should concentrate on it's own financial situation before it tells legislators how to handle the state's finances.

11:27 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brad Davis, a schoolteacher and one of Dillard's former aides, was in the race less than a month. Last Sunday he announced he was dropping out (it's also on his website--www.electbraddavis.com).

11:51 AM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now I heard Bill Frinerfrock will challenge Golden for the nomination. Anyone know?

Any word on challengers for Morgan, Oder, Tata and Rust. Lets not let too many off the hook.

1:04 PM

 
Blogger Addison said...

I feel like a rock star! This may be the most real comments ever!

1) These rankings, which I admit were not the most scientific, were based on the person's ability to make it all the way to the GA. I give Golden the leg up just because he's running for an open seat. The other six should have an easier go of it once they get the nomination, because most of these districts lean Republican. I think the suburban challengers will have an easier time winning a primary, b/c of the transient nature of the population.

2) The Golden-Marsden race has more turns than a Southwest Virginia road. Bradley Davis was in and out of the race before I ever noticed him. I also haven't heard anything about Bill Finerfrock.

3) VCAP matters b/c it is likely to be the only source of significant money that these six ever see. Walt Curt and SEI might put up some money, but the rest will be the nickel and dime stuff.

4) No evidence of any challengers for Morgan, Oder, Tata or Rust. We'll keep our ears open.

2:44 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Frinerfrock is running as a Republican, then I think he's the candidate recruited by Tom Davis to run against Golden. I knew he was out there, somewhere. But I haven't seen him declared yet.

Walter Curt is a big funder of Pat McSweeney. It's possible he might be throwing his money into more races through McSweeney's PAC. We'll see. -- Norman (damn Blogger wouldn't let me log in!)

4:39 PM

 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kenney is the GOP Chairman in Spotsylvania.

I'd rank Kenney a lot higher than that. Orrock may have a ton of money, but Kenney has the activists, the people, enough $$$, and he presents himself very, very well in public.

Oprison should probably be bumped to the top of the list, especially considering that Joe May hasn't figured out he isn't going to be the next Gov. Lite.

If I had to order them:

(1) Oprison
(2) Kenney
(3) Craddock
(4) Jarvis
(5) Golden
(6) Garber
(7) Chapman

7:44 PM

 

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